Ihab Salloum[ad_1]
Legendary stock picker James Dines recently compared uranium stocks to the high-flying net stocks of the halcyon days of the Internet expansion era. While the much-hyped and fleeting Y2K crisis never materialized, the U.S. energy crisis for highly sought uranium has been developing for more than twenty years. Still early in the current bullish uranium cycle, investors are scoring triple-digit returns on what some are calling a ‘renaissance in nuclear energy.’
Just as investors caught the curve of a new paradigm in communications and commerce with Internet stocks, many early birds have already begun investing in the nuclear energy story. The nuclear story pitch is simple: How do you accommodate a massive rush for electrical power demand while faced with the dire threat of carbon dioxide emissions and its direct impact on global warming? The growing consensus is that fission-based nuclear power may become the significant stop-gap energy alternative for this century and possibly until reliable technologies can effectively provide the means for renewable-sourced energy.
Nearly 2 billion people across the planet have no electricity. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) believes nuclear energy could reduce the fossil fuel burden of generating the new demand for electricity. The WNA forecasts a 40-percent jump in worldwide electricity demand over the next five years. The world’s most populated countries, China and India, are in the process of creating the largest energy-consuming class in the history of earth. Both plan aggressive nuclear energy expansion programs. Dozens of lesser developed countries, from Turkey and Indonesia to Vietnam and Venezuela, have announced their eagerness to pursue a civilian nuclear policy to benefit power needs for their burgeoning middle classes.
In a nutshell, global utilities are going to need uranium to help feed the increasing number of nuclear power plants proposed over the next twenty years. Herein lays the crisis: the world has been living off rapidly dwindling inventories since the last uranium up cycle. Uranium is now in shorter available supply for civilian energy use than ever before. Over the next decade, as demand continues to outstrip supply, analysts are predicting utilities will snap up known uranium inventories sending spot uranium prices to record highs. During this launch phase, investors have taken notice, chasing up the stock prices of many uranium producers and exploration companies.
**Uranium Prices May Reach “Unbelievable Highs”**
Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management research analyst, Kevin Bambrough, told STOCKINTERVIEW.COM, “There is a good possibility of a supply crunch that could drive uranium prices to unbelievable highs.” Various analysts predict price targets for spot uranium, in the near-term, above $40. Canadian Augen Capital Corp’s managing director David Mason speculated, “$100 (US) a pound is within reason within the next year or two.” Sydney-based Resource Capital Research is half as generous, forecasting $50/pound by 2007, explaining another 40 percent jump in spot uranium prices will be “driven by end users in the power generation market which is urgently trying to secure supply into the future.”
How high could spot uranium prices run? Kevin Bambrough made a hypothetical case for uranium trading north of $500. “It’s a ridiculous price,” Bambrough confided. “It’s hard to speculate if this is even going to happen.” While he admits that price would not be sustainable, Bambrough makes an interesting point about the concerns facing utility companies, charged with providing us with our electricity. In his futuristic scenario, Bambrough speculated, “There’s a chance that some facilities will have to choose shutting down their nuclear plants (if they can not obtain uranium to fuel the facility).” On that basis, Bambrough calculated the operating costs of a nuclear facility versus the operating cost of a competing fuel. In his conjectural model, Bambrough used natural gas priced at $5.
Bambrough explained, “Assuming that the coal-fired plant’s operating capacity, before you would basically shut down a nuclear facility, you would be comparing it to what you would have to bring on, which would be natural gas. If there is a shortage there (with natural gas), what price would it take before I am willing to shut down my nuclear facility? If you were to shut off the nuclear capacity, and fire up more gas to replace it, it would send gas prices through the stratosphere.” And that doesn’t factor in the cost of shutting down a nuclear facility, itself an exorbitant process. The analyst said he reached his calculation of “north of $500/pound” for spot uranium, under an extraordinary emergency supply crunch, by answering this question: “How much would people pay before they shut it (a nuclear plant) down if there is a shortage of uranium?”
Bambrough’s point illustrates that, unlike coal or natural gas, the cost of uranium in the nuclear fuel cycle is minimal. Thus, uranium is subject to an ever greater price rise without the blowback of consumer panic found in rising fossil fuel prices. Uranium prices might have to approach the level of Bambrough’s hypothetical forecast before even registering concern on an ordinary consumer’s radar.
Despite the recent parabolic rise in spot uranium prices, Bambrough doesn’t foresee the uranium frenzy peaking until the years 2013-2015. What will happen then? “There’s a good chance that the HEU agreement won’t be renewed,” said Bambrough. “Russia may not be selling their uranium. The Russians may want to hold onto what they have.” And if they do sell, they may not sell to the U.S. In 2004, U.S. utilities imported more than 80 percent of their uranium supplies from foreign sources. “It could be that the Russians are interested in trying to build nuclear plants for other countries and be in that business,” he suggested. “That may go hand in hand with ‘we’re going to build you the facility and we can guarantee you supply.’ And Russia would be using the balance of that uranium for their domestic needs.” Bambrough also cited the problem of mines expiring in the face of a potential new demand.
He concluded, “There are time lags to bring new production on versus what needs to be replaced in that 2013 period.” The International Atomic Energy Agency forecast nuclear electrical generating capacity to soar by more than 40 percent by the year 2030, which may further drive demand for tight uranium resources, especially during the period of Bambrough’s forecasted period.
Historical cycles support spot prices higher than $40/pound, a level above where uranium may hover for several years. The current cycle of rising uranium prices closely parallels the leap which occurred between February 1975 and April 1976. Spot uranium prices soared from $16 to $40/pound during that 15-month period. During the 1970s cycle, uranium steadily rose from $6.75/pound in November 1973, peaking in July 1978 at $43.40/pound. Uranium held above $40/pound for nearly four years from April 1976 through February 1980. In this cycle, uranium prices bottomed at $6.40 in January 2001, creeping higher into 2004. Since late last year, spot uranium prices soared with the same momentum seen thirty years ago. If history repeats itself, spot uranium prices should trade above $40/pound this year, and stay above that level until the end of this decade or perhaps for a longer stretch.
The key yardstick in determining how much higher uranium prices will climb is by keeping track of the number of new nuclear facilities being constructed or proposed. Estimates vary wildly, from as few as thirty by 2020 to more than 150 before 2050. “A few years ago, when we first started investing in uranium,” Bambrough explained. “There were very few plants being proposed. The numbers have doubled for proposed facilities. And for every one you hear about, there’s a lot more being planned.” That puts uranium miners into an enviable position. Bambrough added that utilities have to secure their fuel supply for up to six years out, once they decide to build a nuclear facility. “The fact is the supply is just not there,” warned Bambrough.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Cumulative unfilled uranium requirements for U.S. civilian nuclear reactors for 2005 through 2014 were reported to be 365 million pounds U3O8e. The quantity of maximum deliveries of uranium for the same period under existing purchase contracts totaled 181 million pounds.” Nearly 67 percent of the maximum anticipated market requirements for uranium lack a contract. Over the next decade, U.S. utilities will need to newly purchase more than 36 million pounds of uranium oxide each year, on average, in order to keep their nuclear power plants running. According to…
[ad_2]
